'they Would Be Committing Suicide': Former Pentagon Official Explains Why China Won’t Let Iran Choke Hormuz Lifeline

Iran whitethorn beryllium threatening to unopen down nan Strait of Hormuz, but erstwhile U.S. Pentagon charismatic Michael Rubin says nan move would beryllium “suicidal” — and some Washington and Beijing cognize it.

As tensions emergence pursuing U.S.-Israel airstrikes connected Iranian atomic sites, Tehran has issued a bold warning: nan Strait of Hormuz could beryllium closed “within hours.” But subject analysts and strategical experts are skeptical. The strait, a constrictive maritime chokepoint done which astir 20 cardinal barrels of lipid travel daily, is simply excessively captious — not conscionable for Iran’s enemies, but for its closest partners too.

“Forty-four percent of nan substance that goes done Hormuz ends up successful Asia — mostly successful China, and to immoderate grade successful India,” Rubin noted. “So location mightiness beryllium a short disruption. But beyond that, Iran would beryllium committing suicide.”

Rubin emphasized that Iran’s ain dependence connected substance imports — including gasoline — intends that closing Hormuz would strangle its ain system earlier hurting its adversaries. “Their subject and system would wither away,” he said, making it clear that nan threat whitethorn beryllium much governmental theatre than subject reality.

China, Iran’s biggest trading partner and nan largest purchaser of its oil, plays a quiet but powerful domiciled successful this equation. A afloat closure of Hormuz would severely undermine Beijing’s power information and disrupt cardinal proviso routes nether nan Belt and Road Initiative. China has invested heavy successful Iranian infrastructure — including obstruction links for illustration nan precocious operational freight statement from Xi’an to Tehran — to solidify waste and acquisition connectivity. A location conflict that cuts disconnected lipid and derails logistics is not successful Beijing’s interest.

“China whitethorn not publically reason Tehran’s rhetoric, but it will usage its economical leverage down nan scenes,” 1 expert said. “If Hormuz is choked, China bleeds first.”

Alternative proviso routes, including pipelines from Saudi Arabia and nan UAE that bypass Hormuz, connection immoderate resilience — but they’re constricted successful capacity. The U.S. has besides stepped up power exports, positioning itself arsenic a fallback supplier.

Despite fiery threats from Tehran, shutting down nan Strait of Hormuz is easier said than done. Iran stands to suffer much than it gains — and pinch China’s power lifeline connected nan line, Tehran whitethorn find itself pressured from some rivals and friends to support nan lipid flowing.

Published on: Jun 22, 2025 12:07 PM IST