The Junior Doctors' Strikes May Be Over. But Is Trouble Ahead?

It had been nan NHS’s longest-running and bitterest salary conflict - responsible for hundreds of thousands of cancelled operations and appointments.

And then, suddenly, connection came connected Monday that nan British Medical Association was recommending that its 50,000 inferior expert members judge a caller connection from nan caller government.

It sounded almost excessively bully to beryllium true. And now immoderate are wondering if it mightiness be.

Last Friday, conscionable 3 days aft general negotiations started astatine nan Department of Health’s London headquarters, Health Secretary Wes Streeting laid his cards connected nan table.

It was, he made clear to nan British Medical Association delegation, a last connection - a salary emergence topping 22% connected mean complete 2 years successful England.

The union’s squad said they wanted to deliberation astir it complete nan weekend. On Sunday, nan BMA inferior expert leaders met and decided that, while it fell short of their request for a 35% salary increase, this was nan champion woody they could get.

Cue overmuch trumpeting from nan authorities - successful her quality astatine nan House of Commons, Chancellor Rachel Reeves paid tribute to activity put successful by nan wellness secretary.

Mr Streeting had met nan BMA associated inferior expert leaders Dr Rob Laurenson and Dr Vivek Trivedi respective times earlier nan predetermination - asking them successful their past gathering connected Zoom to telephone disconnected nan onslaught they were astir to clasp successful nan lead-up to polling day.

When he was made wellness secretary, Mr Streeting instantly called nan BMA to group up talks. Two meetings were held pinch Dr Laurenson and Dr Trivedi successful a 10-day play pursuing his assignment - earlier nan general salary talks started.

The wellness secretary’s manus was helped by nan truth nan independent salary reappraisal body’s recommendations for nan 2024-25 salary emergence had conscionable landed connected his desk, suggesting a 6% salary emergence and £1,000 lump sum beryllium given.

This allowed him to make an connection which efficaciously mixed 2 years of salary rises. He topped up past year’s salary grant - worthy astir 9% connected mean - pinch an other 4% arsenic good arsenic agreeing to nan salary reappraisal body’s proposal for nan existent financial year.

In little than a week of talks, nan caller wellness caput had achieved what nan erstwhile authorities had grounded to do complete nan people of 11 strikes successful nan erstwhile 18 months.

“What’s important is it could beryllium presented arsenic a win-win for some sides,” 1 root adjacent to nan talks said.

“The BMA sewage a large number, while nan authorities only put successful an other 4% supra what nan salary reappraisal assemblage recommended crossed nan 2 years - that is conscionable 1 percent constituent much than what nan Tories put connected nan array backmost successful December erstwhile talks collapsed.”

Defending nan deal, Ms Reeves called nan costs - astir £350m - a “drop successful nan ocean” compared to nan £1.7bn costs of NHS strikes.

That whitethorn each beryllium true, but what’s connected connection to inferior doctors has not gone unnoticed elsewhere successful nan NHS.

A salary emergence of only 2% for NHS unit was budgeted for successful nan backing fixed to nan wellness work this year.

The Treasury has indicated it will screen immoderate of nan extra, but possibly not all. That has caused interest among elder managers moving hospitals.

“Unless we get further money to salary for this salary emergence we will person to return money retired of services and that is not correct for nan group that we serve,” says Nick Hulme, nan leader of Ipswich and Colchester Hospitals.

There’s besides vexation among different frontline unit who are having to make do pinch overmuch less. Staff specified arsenic nurses, midwives, paramedics and physios person received a small much than half nan emergence inferior doctors person won.

The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) has said it will now beryllium consulting its members to spot what they want to do - and business action is not being ruled out.

“We do not begrudge doctors their salary rise,” RCN leader Prof Nicola Ranger says. “What we inquire for is nan aforesaid adjacent curen from government.”

Prof Len Shackleton, an economist astatine nan University of Buckingham and investigation chap astatine nan Institute of Economic Affairs, believes this could beryllium conscionable nan commencement of a caller information of salary demands.

“The authorities is naïve if it thinks this is complete - different unions will look astatine this woody and deliberation they tin get more, not conscionable those successful nan NHS but crossed nan nationalist sector. This could spiral retired of control.”

On Thursday GPs launched a work-to-rule complete what they opportunity is insufficient backing for wide believe – though nan ballot starring up to this was tally earlier nan inferior expert woody was announced.

And already location are signs nan inferior doctors themselves will beryllium backmost asking for more.

In WhatsApp messages leaked to nan Times newspaper, Dr Laurenson said location would beryllium different “window of opportunity” successful 12 months clip for further strikes erstwhile nan caller government’s honeymoon play is over.

He said he “desperately” wanted to get much from ministers, but this was nan champion that could beryllium achieved for now. When nan communicative emerged, he took to X to opportunity he had told Mr Streeting arsenic overmuch to his look during nan talks.

The extremity of nan NHS business disputes whitethorn not beryllium arsenic adjacent arsenic it first seemed.

Top picture: Getty Images