'strait Of Hormuz Will Be Closed...': With Oil Flow At Risk, How Hard Could India Be Hit?

Tensions successful nan Middle East person erupted into unfastened conflict aft nan United States launched airstrikes connected Iran’s atomic infrastructure, — prompting Tehran to frighten a afloat closure of nan Strait of Hormuz, nan world’s astir captious lipid corridor.

Just hours aft U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that American warplanes had bombed 3 atomic sites wrong Iran — Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan — Brigadier General Alireza Tangsiri, commandant of nan IRGC Navy, repotedly issued a stark warning: “The Strait of Hormuz will beryllium closed wrong a fewer hours.”

This marks nan first nonstop U.S. subject onslaught connected Iranian territory since nan 1979 Islamic Revolution. Speaking from nan Oval Office, Trump called nan ngo “a spectacular subject success,” adding that Iran’s atomic enrichment capabilities had been “completely and wholly obliterated.”

The escalation comes amid rising tensions pursuing Israel’s ongoing subject operations against Iran-linked targets and a deadly location standoff. Trump had antecedently said he would return up to 2 weeks to determine connected U.S. engagement — that decision, it seems, has now been made.

The Strait of Hormuz handles astir 20 cardinal barrels of crude lipid per time — astir one-fifth of world regular consumption. A closure would cripple lipid exports from cardinal Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, nan UAE, and Kuwait. While immoderate alternate pipelines exist, they tin only grip a mini stock — astir 2.6 cardinal barrels per day.

Qatar’s liquefied earthy state (LNG) exports, captious to Asia and Europe, would besides beryllium disrupted.

Brent crude has jumped past $90 per barrel, while WTI climbed supra $87. Analysts pass that a prolonged shutdown could push prices to $120–$150, triggering awesome volatility successful world financial markets.

A world lipid daze would ripple crossed economies already grappling pinch inflation. Energy costs would spike, proviso chains would slow, and shipping insurers are already pricing successful caller war-risk premiums. Economists pass a sustained disruption could slash world GDP by 1–2%, raising nan consequence of a worldwide recession.

How worried should India be?

India, which imports 90% of its crude — pinch complete 40% coming done Hormuz — is particularly vulnerable. A cut-off would impact refinery operations, waste and acquisition balances, and thrust ostentation done soaring substance prices. The rupee would apt travel nether pressure, and nan authorities whitethorn beryllium forced to dip into its 74-day lipid reserves.

Published on: Jun 22, 2025 11:02 AM IST