Morning Glory: Will The House Freedom Caucus Desert President Trump And Trigger A Massive Tax Hike?

House Speaker Mike Johnson hopes to person brought President Donald Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" to a ballot connected Wednesday day aliases evening.  

If he was successful and "OBBB" passed and is connected its measurement to nan president’s desk, past this file has been overtaken by events —great events arsenic transition of nan OBBB intends assistance disconnected of nan American economy.

If, however, 4 aliases much Republicans bolted nan Caucus, turned connected nan president and their party, and stopped nan immense breakthrough for nan economy, nan border, nan power assemblage and particularly nan nation’s defense and voted "no," past break solid and propulsion nan lever.

DEMOCRATIC DOCTORS' PROTEST AGAINST TRUMP'S ‘BEAUTIFUL BILL’ DERAILED BY FLOOD OF US CAPITOL TOURISTS

OBBB isn’t nan benignant of measure that tin past a convention and a 2nd tally done nan legislative course. Too galore constrictive choke-points were navigated to scope this determination point. Throwing be aware to nan upwind and this delicately balanced precocious heap of compromises to a "conference committee" is really to propulsion distant a unsocial opportunity for nan GOP to present connected nan cardinal promises nan statement and President Trump made successful nan run of 2024.

It’s not a cleanable measure successful my eyes aliases nan eyes of immoderate different perceiver and astir members of Congress. It’s a very bully bill, however, and nan bully must not beryllium nan force of nan perfect.

The astir vocal critics of nan OBBB are self-described "deficit hawks" (plus nan overseas shot Congressman Massie from Kentucky who believes his occupation is to beryllium interviewed connected television.)

It isn’t imaginable to trim much from nan bill’s effect connected nan shortage without starting over, and "starting over" intends failing to deliver.

Again, nan margins of nan House and Senate GOP majorities are excessively constrictive to expect a different result. Shooting down nan "OBBB" now intends shooting it down period. The members who ballot "no" will beryllium responsible for nan biggest taxation hike successful history and nan continued diminution successful American subject readiness arsenic good arsenic nan underfunded Border Patrol and unfinished wall.

The Republicans voting "no" whitethorn beryllium from "safe districts," but it’s beautiful clear that nan GOP writ ample and President Trump specifically will beryllium recruiting and backing superior challengers for them and if those aren’t successful, encouraging voters to nonstop honorable obstructionists and leftists to nan House alternatively of grand-standers.

There is, however, 1 point which nan president and nan speaker tin clasp retired to nan House members who want much cuts to spending: nan opportunity to constitute and negociate nan 2nd reconciliation bill.

Early this twelvemonth location were voices arguing for two reconciliation bills —a first reconciliation measure for a layup connected separator and defense spending, and past a 2nd 1 for nan much-more-difficult-to-pass spending and taxation cuts and entitlement reforms aimed astatine paring waste, fraud and maltreatment from those programs.

President Trump, ever nan dealmaker, pushed for nan "OBBB" connected nan mentation —so acold proven correct— that nan GOP wouldn’t consequence nan economy-killing taxation hike scheduled to get January 1, 2026, unless nan "OBBB" stops it first. Trump stake connected momentum and frankincense acold he’s winning that bet.

There are "true believers" successful nan House who want deeper spending cuts. If they rustle nan OBBB up this week, they will opportunity they are counting connected nan House and Senate GOP to reassemble nan pieces but pinch much cuts. That won’t happen, of course. It’s not moreover a mirage. It’s counter-reality. That won’t happen. Look astatine nan Senate vote: 50-50. All nan weight that nan measure tin carnivore is successful it. Pass it aliases invited nan monolithic taxation hike of 2026!

The existing spending cuts successful nan measure endangered its transition successful nan Senate. Slice moreover a small deeper and nan woody is dead. The dead-enders successful nan House whitethorn want to judge thing other could happen, but nan bottommost statement is sidesplitting nan "OBBB" now intends sidesplitting it forever. The Republicans who ballot against nan "OBBB" are voting to clang nan system betwixt now and November 2026, and frankincense for a Democrat mostly successful nan House and each nan fiscal irresponsibility that telegraphs to nan markets. It would beryllium a bloodbath successful nan markets and rightfully so.

The "no" votes connected nan "OBBB" are "yes" votes for Speaker Jeffries and monolithic spending hikes his presence would herald on pinch nan tremendous taxation hike whammy.

The deficit hawks object that they were promised much and they astir apt were. But each legislator gets a ballot excessively and nan limit of nan Senate’s appetite for corporate shortage cutting has been reached. This is nan champion that tin beryllium done connected this information of reconciliation.

What nan president and nan speaker tin connection nan hold-outs is power of nan 2nd information of reconciliation, a 2nd information which this Congress has nan correct to return up.

Put Representatives Chip Roy, Andy Harris and Ralph Norman successful complaint of that bill’s drafting and nan guidance of it connected nan House floor. No guarantees of transition tin beryllium fixed —there are moderates successful nan House GOP who would person to beryllium persuaded, but nan president and nan speaker tin connection beardown support for nan effort. The shortage hawks mightiness travel up pinch nan thread that tin make it done nan smallest of galore needles’ eyes: existent betterment of entitlements.

If location are members who want Social Security to spell bankrupt, aliases Medicare and liking payments to devour nan full discretionary spending budget, they will beryllium indifferent to entitlement reform. But responsible members of some parties successful some houses of Congress person to recognize that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was correct erstwhile he declared Tuesday that "The level of nan indebtedness is sustainable, but nan way is not."

"We request to reside that sooner aliases later," Powell continued. "Sooner is amended than later."

"Sooner" tin mean correct now and if nan fiscal hawks are allowed to trade an entitlement betterment measure for nan 2nd reconciliation bill, 1 that uses nan top limb successful nan arsenal against nan nationalist indebtedness —time. With a well-crafted bill, they could moreover propulsion it off.

Recall nan "BRAC" commissions? On 5 different occasions since 1988, Congress gave nan very delicate task of designating American subject installations for closure to an independent committee which held hearings and produced a database of bases to beryllium shuttered. Every local
congressman knew their ox could beryllium gored, but they besides knew nan state needed to trim nan size and standard of home subject installations. So Congress group up and empowered BRACs, and nan BRACs did their work. Congress was yet presented nan database and, by design, Congress could only ballot "yes" aliases "no" connected nan full list. By forcing each of Congress to woody pinch each of nan closures, nan symptom was shared retired and nan BRACs recommendations ever accepted. The 5 BRAC rounds since 1988 closed complete 350 subject installations, starring to important costs savings and freeing up resources for different priorities.

We request specified an attack for an entitlement betterment committee and specified a process for Congressional information of nan commission’s recommendations.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION

Take nan easiest betterment to propose and pass: adding a period to nan status property eligibility tables each twelvemonth for nan adjacent 60 years. That would mean a twelvemonth summation successful nan property of eligibility —from 65 to 66 for example—every twelve years, and would thief conform Social Security to actuarial tables reflecting our corporate longer life spans. Put nan slow moving betterment successful spot only for those nether 55 and nan extremity consequence is that each Americans nether 55 won’t get a Social Security cheque until property 66. That’s a very gentle but basal bending of nan costs curve for entitlements.

Include specified a connection successful a package of different careful, gradual reforms to our tangle of entitlements and past put for nan full package to person an up-or-down ballot successful nan lame-duck convention of Congress successful December 2026.

The shortage hawks tin request nan correct to effort and really hole nan deficit. And they should get it.

But is that what they want, aliases do they desire look clip connected viral videos that are present coming and gone earlier sundown?

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

This is simply a very superior infinitesimal successful nan life of nan country. Making a tax building permanent that rewards finance and consequence is nan azygous astir important point this Congress tin do to guarantee a vibrant, increasing economy. Resupplying our defense stockpiles and expediting vessel and submarine building are captious to our safety. Blocking nan imperishable take of that taxation codification arsenic good arsenic nan urgently needed investments successful defense and separator information would beryllium reckless beyond measure.

But if capable short-sighted grandstanders emergence up to artifact nan OBBB, make them an connection they can’t refuse: work for much than speeches.

Hugh Hewitt is simply a Fox News contributor, and big of "The Hugh Hewitt Show," heard weekdays from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. ET connected nan Salem Radio Network, and simulcast connected Salem News Channel. Hugh drives America location connected nan East Coast and to luncheon connected nan West Coast connected complete 400 affiliates nationwide, and connected each nan streaming platforms wherever SNC tin beryllium seen. He is simply a predominant impermanent connected nan Fox News Channel’s news roundtable hosted by Bret Baier weekdays astatine 6pm ET. A boy of Ohio and a postgraduate of Harvard College and nan University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law astatine Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 wherever he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous power show from Los Angeles successful 1990. Hewitt has often appeared connected each awesome nationalist news tv network, hosted tv shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for each awesome American paper, has authored a twelve books and moderated a people of Republican campaigner debates, astir precocious nan November 2023 Republican statesmanlike statement successful Miami and 4 Republican statesmanlike debates successful nan 2015-16 cycle. Hewitt focuses his power show and his file connected nan Constitution, nationalist security, American authorities and nan Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump complete his 40 years successful broadcast, and this file previews nan lead communicative that will thrust his radio/ TV show today.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM HUGH HEWITT