Fifteen Years After A Volcano Shut European Airspace, Could It Happen Again?

For 8 days successful April 2010 UK and European airspace was closed aliases partially closed causing chaos to travellers astir nan world.

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano successful Iceland explosively erupted on14 April sending a immense ash unreality into nan ambiance and nan upwind shape directed it towards Europe.

Creating nan worst disruption to aerial recreation since World War Two, it put a spotlight connected really unprepared nan aviation manufacture was for nan consequences of a volcanic eruption.

Fifteen years connected procedures person changed but could we spot turmoil for illustration that again?

Heathrow airdrome closed for a time successful precocious March aft a occurrence astatine a adjacent substation trim powerfulness and resulted successful 1,300 cancelled flights, pinch thousands of passengers affected.

It feels difficult to ideate now what it was for illustration having eight days of airspace closure crossed nan UK and Europe successful 2010 pinch 300 airports closed, 100,000 flights cancelled, 10 cardinal passengers incapable to recreation and a reported £1.1 cardinal nonaccomplishment for nan hose industry.

The time aft nan Eyjafjallajökull eruption which spewed ash precocious into nan ambiance - astir 20 to 50,000ft (4-10 miles) wherever commercialized airlines run - that ash started to drift southward into UK airspace.

International aviation rules astatine nan clip were that craft could not alert into immoderate levels of volcanic ash and nan airspace was quickly closed down.

This had ne'er caused a problem earlier because astir volcanic eruptions up to that constituent were localised and airlines were capable to alert astir ash unreality without issue.

According to Jonathan Nicholson from nan UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA): "It was what a batch of group called a 'Black Swan Event' - unforeseen, typically pinch utmost consequences - but it was a Black Swan that was yet predictable because Icelandic volcanoes happened and will proceed to happen."

Passengers were stranded astir nan world, scrambling to find immoderate method of carrier to get home.

The Met Office operates 1 of 9 world Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC) and is responsible for issuing advisories for volcanic eruptions originating from nan northbound eastbound area of nan North Atlantic, including Iceland.

Once Eyjafjallajökull erupted nan centre ran machine models pinch forecast information and for Dr Matthew Hort, Head of Atmospheric Dispersion astatine nan Met Office, it was nan astir aggravated play of his moving life earlier and since.

He said: "It was an oculus opener globally. The unsocial point astir nan Icelandic eruption was that it happened successful an area wherever we had winds from nan northbound that brought nan ash down crossed UK airspace and trans-Atlantic routes."

As nan days of disruption went connected pinch nary motion of ash contamination clearing, everyone was nether unit to find a measurement to re-open airspace successful a safe and controlled way.

Airlines and motor manufacturers had to behaviour investigation to ascertain if location was a safe level of ash attraction which wouldn't harm pitchy engines.

Rolls-Royce was astatine nan forefront of pioneering testing and for nan first clip was capable to found a level of volcanic ash that didn't earnestly impact nan pitchy motor complete a fixed timeframe.

Mr Nicholson explained: "In conjunction pinch Met Office forecasts it enabled america to unfastened airspace wherever location were debased levels of ash."

On 20 April aft an world teleconference headed by nan CAA, it was agreed that 2 milligrams of ash per cubic metre of aerial was an acceptable safe ash concentration.

Airspace re-opened that nighttime pinch flights operating arsenic normal.

Eyjafjallajökull continued to erupt good into June pinch occasional spikes of higher ash attraction coming into nan UK but nether nan caller rules authorities were capable to support astir of nan airspace unfastened pinch only localised airdrome closures.

In nan months and years aft investigation and moving groups continued to measure procedures and rules.

"The activity that happened very quickly astatine nan clip astir nan arena sewage america to 90% of wherever we are now…but that has been consolidated and put into circumstantial information measures," Mr Nicholson said.

Today location are 3 levels of volcanic ash contamination - low, mean and high, pinch guidance connected really agelong a aviator tin alert successful those concentrations earlier causing important damage.

"If thing akin happened today, it will beryllium up to nan airlines to usage their ain permissions from nan motor manufacturers and their ain information cases to determine wherever and when, based connected forecasts, will let them to go," Mr Nicholson added.

"And that will beryllium different for each hose arsenic immoderate whitethorn judge higher aliases little levels of ash arsenic acceptable."

There has besides been a monolithic improvement programme successful nan monitoring and forecasting of volcanic ash.

As a nonstop consequence of nan ash unreality nan Met Office deployed imperishable LIDAR instruments that constituent a laser into nan entity tin of measuring ash concentrations.

New satellites person besides been launched globally which alteration scientists to show ash concentrations each 15 minutes.

In summation location person been advances successful machine modelling to amended nan physics and processes progressive successful really different shapes and sizes of volcanic ash behave successful nan atmosphere.

What is clear coming is that arsenic a nonstop consequence of 2010, pinch each nan improvements made, nan UK and Europe is successful a overmuch amended spot to power and negociate volcanic ash.

In caller months location person been small eruptions successful Iceland starring to nan removal of Grindavik and nan closure of nan celebrated Blue Lagoon spa.

However, location has been small interest to aviation arsenic these caller eruptions are mostly mini fissure eruptions pinch ample and slow lava flows - alternatively than nan explosive ash eruption from Eyjafjallajökull.

Experts judge that if nan 2010 volcanic ash arena happened coming location would beryllium "nowhere adjacent nan aforesaid level, if any, disruption" according to some Dr Hort and Mr Nicholson, mostly because we now cognize that nan level of ash seen successful UK airspace successful 2010 was comparatively debased and safe to alert in.

But Dr Hort warns: "You tin ever person a bigger eruption."

If a volcano erupted pinch really precocious levels of ash affecting UK aliases European airspace, past "absolutely we will spot disruption because it's a information issue", added Mr Nicholson.